Tadić: Trump wants Iran conflict resolved quickly for peaceful World Cup

Analyst Tonči Tadić suggests that U.S. President Donald Trump is eager to conclude the conflict with Iran quickly, potentially to ensure a peaceful World Cup.

Tadić highlights a paradoxical situation three months into the U.S. operation against Iran: negotiations between Washington and Tehran are centered almost exclusively on unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, rather than the nuclear program, which was the stated reason for the conflict. This shift indicates that addressing the immediate economic crisis has become the priority over the issue that formally initiated the war.

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Trump wants everything to be finished as soon as possible so that he has a peaceful World Cup.

A particularly intriguing aspect, according to Tadić, is the $300 billion fund that has recently surfaced. The U.S. administration presents it as an investment fund for Iran's reconstruction and development, while Iranian media refers to it as war reparations Tehran expects from the United States. This disparity in interpretation underscores the profound mistrust pervading the negotiations.

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The negotiations between Washington and Tehran are not about the nuclear program, which was the formal reason for the conflict, but almost exclusively about unblocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Tadić expresses skepticism about Trump's ability to secure an agreement comparable to the 2015 deal brokered by the Obama administration. He notes that the earlier negotiations involved a broad international coalition, whereas Washington is now negotiating largely alone. Tadić questions why China and Russia would intervene in a conflict that began without their knowledge or consent, despite Trump's potential frustration.

Iran holds a significant negotiating advantage as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy and raw material trade, remains partially paralyzed. Tadić reports that approximately 1,550 ships of various flags are currently blocked in the Persian Gulf. The consequences extend beyond oil and gas markets, impacting supplies crucial for fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, plastics, and the electronics industry, thus affecting countries from Europe to Asia and South America.

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The fact that the two sides interpret the same figure in completely different ways speaks volumes about the depth of mistrust that accompanies the negotiations.

Given these economic repercussions, Tadić doubts Washington will resort to another large-scale military operation. He warns that unblocking the strait would involve not only clearing mines or securing passage for merchant ships but potentially occupying hundreds of kilometers of Iranian coastline and numerous strategic islands, a complex undertaking akin to navigating the challenging Dalmatian coast.

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Trump can be as angry as he wants that China and Russia are not pressuring Iran, but why should they get involved in a war that started without their knowledge and without their permission?