Taiwan Housing Market Sentiment Edges Up Amid Economic Uncertainty; Stock Market Optimism High

Public sentiment towards Taiwan's real estate market has seen a marginal uptick, with both buying and selling intentions showing slight improvements in July. The National Economic Confidence survey by Cathay Financial Holding indicates the buying intention index nudged up from -39.1 in June to -38.5 in July. Similarly, the selling intention index rose from -33.1 to -32.6 during the same period.

However, this modest improvement in housing market sentiment contrasts with a broader decline in economic optimism. The index for the current economic situation's optimism fell to 25.8, and the outlook optimism index dropped to 20.3. Consumer confidence for large purchases also weakened, with the index for major consumption intentions decreasing to 20.7, and the index for durable goods consumption intentions falling to -2.1.

Regarding the overall economy, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) had previously forecast Taiwan's economic growth at 9.64% for 2026, with inflation at 1.93%. The survey reveals public expectations are slightly more conservative, with an average forecast for economic growth at 9% and inflation at 2.3%. A majority of respondents anticipate economic growth exceeding 9% and inflation surpassing 2% this year.

Despite market volatility, including fluctuations in the Taiwan stock market influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and tech stock valuations, public sentiment towards the stock market remains relatively high. The optimism index for the Taiwan stock market slightly decreased to 53.5 in July, with the risk preference index falling to 39. Notably, 57% of respondents expect the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index to reach over 50,000 points in the second half of 2026.