Taiwanese reject unification as China increases legal pressure

China's sustained legal and political pressure on Taiwan over the past two decades has coincided with a significant and growing rejection of unification among the Taiwanese public.

Since China enacted the Anti-Secession Law in 2005, followed by other measures such as the "Law on Safeguarding National Unity and Promoting National Reunification" which took effect in July, Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has tracked public opinion. Their surveys reveal a clear trend: the proportion of Taiwanese people who reject unification has steadily increased.

In 2005, when the Anti-Secession Law was established, 39% of Taiwanese respondents favored options that could be broadly categorized as rejecting unification. These included maintaining the status quo and deciding later (40.5%), perpetually maintaining the status quo (19%), and leaning towards independence (20%, comprising those favoring immediate independence and maintaining the status quo with a future move toward independence).

By March 2024, the landscape of public opinion had shifted considerably. The option of "perpetually maintaining the status quo" garnered the most support at 33.9%. Support for "maintaining the status quo and deciding later" decreased to 24.1%. Notably, the proportion leaning towards independence rose to 27.8%, while those favoring unification dropped to just 7.8%.

When considering the broader definition of "rejecting unification", encompassing immediate independence, maintaining the status quo with a future move toward independence, and perpetually maintaining the status quo, the figures are even more stark. The MAC's 2024 survey indicates that 61.7% of the Taiwanese public falls into this category, a significant increase from the 39% recorded in 2005. This data underscores a persistent and strengthening Taiwanese preference for self-determination over unification with mainland China.