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🇹🇼 Taiwan /Economy & Trade

Taiwanese Think Tanks Predict Over 10% Economic Growth, Outpacing Global Forecasts

From Liberty Times · () Chinese

Translated from Chinese, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • Three major Taiwanese think tanks predict the island's economic growth will exceed 10% this year, significantly outpacing global forecasts.
  • Unlike previous years driven by exports, Taiwan's economy is now fueled by both robust domestic consumption, boosted by a strong stock market, and external demand.
  • International institutions project global economic growth between 2% and 3% for the year, with a slowdown expected in 2026.

Taiwan's economic outlook for this year is exceptionally bright, with three leading domestic think tanks forecasting growth to surpass 10%. This projection stands in stark contrast to international estimates, which place global economic growth between 2% and 3%.

compared to previous years driven by exports, this year is no longer driven solely by exports, domestic consumption momentum is also supported by the wealth effect brought by the rise of the Taiwan stock market, showing a 'hot both inside and out' situation.

— Domestic think tanksExplaining the dual drivers of Taiwan's economic growth.

The robust growth is attributed to a dual engine of domestic consumption and external demand. Unlike in previous years where exports were the primary driver, this year sees a more balanced economic expansion. The booming stock market has created a wealth effect, encouraging consumer spending and contributing significantly to domestic demand. This internal strength, combined with strong export performance, paints a picture of a thriving economy.

the overall economic growth momentum is jointly supported by domestic and foreign demand engines.

— Academia SinicaDescribing the balanced economic growth drivers.

The three institutions, the Academia Sinica, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, and the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, have all revised their forecasts upward. The Academia Sinica predicts 10.16% growth, with domestic and foreign demand each contributing about 5 percentage points. The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research forecasts 10.35%, highlighting a "hot" domestic and external environment. The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research offers the highest projection at 10.38%, noting that both domestic and external demand, along with investment, have exceeded expectations. They specifically point to the wealth effect from the stock market and a recovering auto market as key drivers of increased private consumption.

this year the biggest difference is 'it's not just exports that are doing well', but domestic and external demand are growing together.

— Taiwan Institute of Economic ResearchHighlighting the shift in economic drivers.
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Originally published by Liberty Times in Chinese. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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