Taxing the super-rich could prevent up to 30 million deaths by 2030

Taxing the world’s richest people could prevent up to 29.5 million deaths by 2030, according to a study led by Spain’s ISGlobal and published in The Lancet.

The study examined mortality and official development assistance in 59 countries between 2002 and 2021. It assessed how fiscal measures could offset the health effects of cuts in international aid, as many donor countries reduce their contributions.

ISGlobal said wealth redistribution measures could generate “significant resources” for development and health programs. The researchers found that higher levels of development aid were associated with a 24% reduction in mortality, including a reduction of up to 33% among children under five.

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significant resources

If aid cuts continue through 2030, the study estimates that about 7.6 million additional deaths could occur. Some 1.4 million of those deaths would involve children under five. The fiscal measures examined included taxes on large fortunes, multinational companies, financial transactions, carbon emissions, cryptocurrencies and interest generated by sovereign debt.

Across the scenarios, the measures produced enough resources to fully or partly offset the projected effects of reduced aid. A 3% wealth tax on the richest people was associated with up to 29.5 million deaths avoided by 2030. A global minimum tax on large multinational companies was linked to about 20 million deaths avoided, while a financial-transactions tax was associated with preventing around 24 million deaths.

“Given the growing debt of donor countries and the increasing reallocation of resources toward military spending, financing humanitarian aid through taxation of the wealthiest people is emerging as one of the most viable strategies,” said Lucio Expósito, the study’s lead economist. ISGlobal said interest in such taxes has recently returned to forums including the G20 and an international conference on development financing.

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Given the growing debt of donor countries and the increasing reallocation of resources toward military spending, financing humanitarian aid through taxation of the wealthiest people is emerging as one of the most viable strategies.