TC Energy increases demand outlook for natural gas amid data centre boom

TC Energy Corp. has significantly revised its demand outlook for North American natural gas, projecting a substantial increase driven by the burgeoning data center industry and broader industrial expansion. The Calgary-based company now anticipates a demand growth of 51 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) between 2025 and 2035, a notable upward revision from its earlier forecasts.

This revised forecast represents a 23% increase from TC Energy's late 2024 projection of 40 bcf/d and surpasses its February 2025 estimate of 46 bcf/d. The company attributes this surge primarily to liquefied natural gas exports, increased gas-fired power generation, and ongoing industrial development. "Importantly, nearly 70 percent of this demand growth is concentrated in the U.S. heartland, Alberta, and Mexico, regions where TC Energy has a strong incumbent position and significant existing infrastructure," stated TC chief executive François Poirier.

In response to this growing demand, TC Energy is actively exploring opportunities to expand its pipeline network. The company recently offered additional natural gas shipping services in the Greater Edmonton Area, which were fully subscribed. Furthermore, an offering for capacity on TC's intra-Alberta network between 2030 and 2032 saw record participation from data center developers.

TC Energy is also advancing its Crossroads project in Indiana and Ohio, with a final investment decision expected in the fourth quarter of this year. The company plans to expand this 365-kilometer pipeline system by 1.5 bcf/d, noting that interest in the expansion has significantly exceeded the initial capacity offered. Poirier indicated that the company is in advanced discussions with potential customers for this project. The surge in data center development, fueled by artificial intelligence, is a major driver, with some facilities requiring power equivalent to an entire city. Alberta, in particular, is actively attracting tech companies, with the provincial government prioritizing projects that include their own power generation, often natural gas-fired, to avoid straining the existing grid. However, this rapid development has also raised local concerns regarding pollution, noise, water usage, and utility costs.

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Importantly, nearly 70 percent of this demand growth is concentrated in the U.S. heartland, Alberta, and Mexico, regions where TC Energy has a strong incumbent position and significant existing infrastructure