Thai tourism eyes China-Japan travel shift with caution

Thailand's tourism industry is closely watching the revival of travel between China and Japan, as it could significantly impact the crucial Chinese inbound market in the second half of the year. The potential return of Chinese tourists to Japan, a highly popular destination, raises concerns for Thailand, which has been working to recover its tourism numbers.

Reports indicate that some Chinese tour agents have resumed selling tour packages to Japan for July and August. While some sales were paused amid public attention, the possibility of loosened travel restrictions from China is being factored into Thailand's marketing strategies. In the first five months of the year, Chinese tourist arrivals in Japan saw a substantial decrease of 52%, largely due to restrictions on group tours.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Middle East conflict has disrupted global travel, prompting the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to reconsider its annual targets. Initially aiming for 6.73 million Chinese visitors, the forecast has been adjusted downwards, with a more likely projection of 5 million for 2026. Airlines are also cautious, prioritizing profitable routes, which may favor shorter trips to destinations like South Korea and Hong Kong over longer flights to Thailand.

Despite these challenges, Thailand has seen some growth, with a 17% increase in Chinese visitors as of June 20, reaching 2.5 million. As TAT formulates its 2027 action plan, the Chinese market is expected to continue growing, though competition from other countries remains intense.

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If restrictions on outbound Chinese group tours to Japan are lifted, Thai tourism would be affected to some extent, as Japan remains one of the most popular destinations among Chinese travellers.