The Bolsonaro 2.0 risk? Brazil’s democracy may be stronger than feared

The prospect of Flávio Bolsonaro winning Brazil’s presidency has revived fears that the country could face another serious threat to democracy. The concern rests partly on the memory of 2022, when some military figures refused to join what the column describes as a coup adventure. A second Bolsonaro presidency, it argues, would also have Donald Trump in the White House.

The danger posed by leaders with illiberal tendencies should not be dismissed. Research by Berlucchi and Kellam, covering democratic governments since 1970, associates populists in power with greater democratic erosion. But the research also finds that holding the presidency alone does not determine the outcome. A leader’s ability to turn intentions into institutional damage depends on the resources and constraints they face.

That makes Brazil’s institutional legacy central to the question. Studies cited by the column find that populist governments do less damage where independent courts, an impartial bureaucracy and respect for rules are firmly established. Institutions, in this view, learn to resist pressure.

Brazil also benefits from a fragmented party system. Presidents must negotiate with diverse parties to build legislative majorities, making it costly to coordinate and maintain a united coalition around an authoritarian project. Congress, the Supreme Court, the Public Prosecutor’s Office, the press and civil society have accumulated experience imposing limits on the executive since 1988. Jair Bolsonaro tested those limits and failed, while he and several associates later faced important judicial consequences.

Trump could provide political support from abroad, the column says, but he would not control Brazil’s Congress or Supreme Court justices, nor remove the constraints created by multiparty politics. The argument does not minimize the Bolsonaro family’s possible illiberal tendencies. It concludes that Brazil’s democracy has already endured a severe stress test and demonstrated resilience.