The coming age of artificial general intelligence

The rapid advancement of artificial general intelligence (AGI) prompts critical questions about its future impact on society and the global workforce, as highlighted by John Thornhill's Financial Times article. The concern is that AGI's development is proceeding with an assumption of inevitability, potentially leaving countries like Nigeria unprepared for a future where human direction in technological creation diminishes.

While AGI's arrival and capabilities remain uncertain, substantial investments are pouring into systems designed for advanced learning, reasoning, and cognitive tasks with less human oversight. This technological shift could significantly affect young Nigerians entering the job market. The traditional career path, involving years of learning through routine tasks, researching cases for lawyers, checking figures for accountants, or basic assignments for software developers, may be curtailed if machines can perform these functions more efficiently.

Nigeria, known for its large and youthful population, has long viewed its demographic dividend as a potential economic advantage. This outlook has included aspirations to compete internationally in knowledge-based services, mirroring successes seen in countries like India. The model relies on employing skilled Nigerian professionals remotely for businesses in wealthier economies, attracted by lower labor costs.

However, the advent of AI challenges this economic arithmetic. If AGI automates the routine tasks that form the basis of entry-level positions, companies might reduce recruitment of beginners. This could limit opportunities for Nigerian graduates to acquire the necessary experience to become professionals, thereby diminishing the value of their education and potentially increasing pressure on a labor market already strained by population growth. The article suggests that without sufficient productive work, Nigeria's demographic advantage could transform into a significant liability.