“The Deciding Factor”: Sahra Wagenknecht Could Determine Whether the AfD Takes Power

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance may be fighting for survival, but in Saxony-Anhalt it could hold the key to power. The BSW is polling below the 5% threshold ahead of Sunday’s state election, yet its seats could determine whether the AfD forms a government.

The party emerged in January 2024, after Wagenknecht broke away from the Left and built support through opposition to Germany’s policy of backing Ukraine against Russia. It quickly made an impact in state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, clearing 10% in all three. In February 2025, it narrowly missed entering the Bundestag, falling short by a few thousand votes.

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The deciding factor

Since then, the momentum has faded. At a gathering in Magdeburg, BSW lead candidate Claudia Wittig insisted that the party would clear the threshold. “I am quite sure that we will cross the 5% threshold and probably by a significant margin,” she said. Wittig described the BSW’s position as “the deciding factor.”

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I am quite sure that we will cross the 5% threshold and probably by a significant margin

The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is heading toward a strong result and may come close to an absolute majority of seats. Whether smaller parties enter parliament could determine the final balance. If the BSW succeeds, Wagenknecht’s party could help bring the AfD to power.

Wittig said the party faces competing demands from its supporters. “We have people who would rather vote for us if we clearly say that we want a coalition with the AfD,” she said, adding that others want the opposite. Cooperating with the AfD could also alienate voters and party officials in western Germany. The gathering’s older audience included people wearing shirts referencing East Germany and Palestine, with Wagenknecht seated in the front row.

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We have people who would rather vote for us if we clearly say that we want a coalition with the AfD