The end of the Kaczynski era: Poland's shadow ruler loses his grip

Jaroslaw Kaczynski's life's work is beginning to slip away. For years, his national-conservative Law and Justice party, known as PiS, could count on at least a third of Poland's voters. In recent months, support has fallen sharply, and the split led by former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki's moderate wing has pushed the party below 20 percent in some polls.

That does not necessarily mean the Polish right is heading for defeat at the election due in just over a year. Opposition parties still appear on course for a clear majority against Donald Tusk's unpopular governing coalition. But PiS is no longer the broad umbrella under which the various groups to the right of center gather. For now, it has become one party among many in an increasingly fragmented field, and Kaczynski's power is diminishing.

The crisis is largely self-inflicted and closely tied to the personality of the 77-year-old leader. For a quarter-century, Kaczynski has directed the right-wing camp as head of the party he founded with his late twin brother, Lech. His preferred role was that of the introverted power broker behind the scenes. He appeared driven by conviction rather than by a desire for prestige or office.

PiS led Poland twice, first in a fragile coalition from 2005 to 2007 and then alone for eight years from 2015. Kaczynski himself served as prime minister for only 16 months during the earlier period. Unlike his twin brother, who became president in 2005, Jaroslaw Kaczynski is portrayed as a committed ideologue aware of his polarizing effect. He therefore sent carefully chosen, low-charisma party loyalists without their own power bases into elections.

The strategy worked remarkably well. In 2015, the little-known party official Beata Szydlo won the parliamentary majority, while the previously obscure European Parliament member Andrzej Duda won the presidency for PiS. Both proved loyal instruments of Kaczynski's authority from the background. The supplied article ends while describing that political arrangement.