The fantasy of toppling Middle Eastern regimes is a familiar pattern in Israeli policy - opinion

An opinion piece published in The Jerusalem Post critically examines a recently reported alleged Mossad plan to overthrow the Iranian regime. The plan reportedly involved coordinating with Kurdish forces and installing former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While initially appearing creative and reminiscent of past successful Mossad operations, the author argues the strategy is fundamentally flawed and more akin to fantasy than practical policy.

The article highlights several key weaknesses in the alleged plan. Firstly, it questions the assumption that several thousand Kurdish fighters could ignite a widespread uprising within Iran and garner support from other minority and opposition groups. The author notes that non-Persian minorities often lack broad legitimacy nationwide and points to past Israeli experiences with Kurdish allies, such as in Iraq, which yielded limited success.

Secondly, the reliance on Ahmadinejad as a pivotal figure is deemed puzzling, given his history of anti-Israeli and antisemitic rhetoric, despite claims of an ideological transformation. The author expresses doubt about his ability to mobilize significant segments of Iranian society and warns against the dangers of depending on a single personality, recalling the assassination of Lebanese president-elect Bashir Gemayel.

The author draws parallels between the current alleged Iranian operation and Israel's 1982 intervention in Lebanon. In both instances, the Mossad reportedly spearheaded the initiative, despite internal opposition. The article suggests that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be viewing the Iranian operation as a means to redeem himself politically following the failures of October 7, similar to how then-defense minister Ariel Sharon led the Lebanese initiative. The piece concludes by suggesting a recurring pattern in Israeli policy of pursuing regime change through unreliable partners, echoing past strategic missteps.