The gold flow has reversed: Switzerland could now demand tariffs from the USA

Switzerland's significant trade surplus with the United States has dramatically reversed, transforming into a deficit, largely driven by shifts in the gold trade. This development weakens a primary point of contention for former U.S. President Donald Trump, who frequently criticized Switzerland's trade imbalance with the U.S.

Analysis of trade data reveals that what was once a $38.3 billion surplus in 2024 has now become a clear deficit. Switzerland is currently importing considerably more goods from the U.S. than it is exporting. According to Trump's own logic, this situation could theoretically allow Switzerland to demand tariffs from the U.S. At the very least, it provides a strong argument for Switzerland to assert that the basis for American tariff threats has evaporated during current trade agreement talks.

The dramatic disappearance of the Swiss surplus is almost entirely attributable to the gold trade. Excluding gold, Switzerland continues to export more to the U.S. than it imports. Major Swiss export industries, including pharmaceuticals, watchmaking, and machinery, still see their goods flowing to the U.S. in greater volume than imports from the U.S. in those sectors.

However, these traditional exports are now being overshadowed by the gold trade's volatility. This is notable because gold was the primary reason for Switzerland's previous large trade surplus. The shift occurred after Trump's election in November 2024, when fears of U.S. tariffs on gold imports prompted international banks and investors to rapidly move bullion into the U.S. to avoid potential duties, creating a rush in the gold market. Switzerland, with its four major refineries and high production standards, plays a crucial role in global gold processing, making it a key transit point for this trade.