The Independent: West harbors illusions about Russia's future

Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Western nations appear to be living under the illusion that improved relations with a post-war Russia are possible, according to an analysis in The Independent. A prevailing assumption in the West is that sustained economic and military pressure will eventually compel Moscow to alter its course or lead to the downfall of its current political system.

However, the article argues that these scenarios fail to account for the long-term processes shaping Russia. Internal challenges are mounting, including a shrinking working-age population, decelerating productivity growth, and a decreasing share of energy export revenues in the federal budget. These issues have been intensified by the invasion of Ukraine, leading to labor shortages from mobilization and emigration, and a shift in government spending towards defense at the expense of civilian investment and social programs.

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Western countries are still full of illusions about good relations with post-war Russia.

The author points out that the annexation of occupied territories adds a further burden, requiring significant administrative and financial resources without yielding tangible economic returns. These factors are not isolated but accumulate and reinforce each other, creating a complex internal dynamic.

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These factors do not operate in isolation. They accumulate and reinforce each other.

Furthermore, the article suggests that Russia's governance model is fundamentally based on confrontation with the outside world, unlike democratic systems that might seek reform or compromise when faced with escalating problems. Consequently, the Kremlin is likely to rely on less resource-intensive methods in the medium term, such as cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation campaigns, and leveraging energy resources, rather than engaging in large-scale military operations.

In conclusion, the analysis urges Western governments, businesses, and societies to abandon expectations of a return to pre-war normalcy. Instead, strengthening critical infrastructure, bolstering democratic institutions, and managing long-term Russia-related risks should become a permanent feature of Western policy, rather than merely a reaction to the current conflict.

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In the medium term, the Kremlin will likely rely not on large-scale military campaigns, but on cheaper and less resource-intensive means of influence – cyberattacks, sabotage, information operations, the use of energy leverage, and activities through intermediaries.