The new ‘Great Game’: America and China’s tug-of-war in the Middle East

The recent US-led war against Iran appears to have inadvertently bolstered China's diplomatic influence in the Middle East, positioning Beijing as a key player in the region's evolving geopolitical landscape. While the United States invested substantial resources and military assets in the conflict, achieving limited strategic goals, China has quietly expanded its diplomatic footprint and cultivated relationships, emerging as a more predictable and reliable partner.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi engaged in numerous discussions with his Iranian counterpart, and China, in collaboration with Pakistan, played an indirect but significant role in facilitating the US-Iran negotiations. Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump also discussed Iran and the Strait of Hormuz during a summit, with Trump acknowledging Xi's helpfulness in resolving the conflict. This diplomatic engagement contrasts sharply with the US's costly military campaign, which highlighted the limitations of American power.

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President Xi helped me. He tried to help, and I think he probably helped get it solved.

As the US grappled with containing Iran's counteroffensive and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, China actively promoted its image as a stable global partner. Beijing hosted national leaders, further solidifying its position while the US faced challenges in reasserting its leadership. This strategic shift has elevated China's standing, particularly after the US's withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, which created a power vacuum that China readily exploited.

This dynamic is described as a new iteration of the "Great Game," a term historically used to denote geopolitical rivalries in Central Asia and the Middle East. The Biden administration's initial plan to withdraw from Afghanistan and refocus resources on competition with China was disrupted by the Taliban's rapid advance. The US's subsequent actions, including the attack on Iran, are seen as part of a broader effort to maintain its influence and counter China's expanding presence in the region. However, experts suggest that while China's influence has grown, it is unlikely to establish immediate hegemony over the Middle East.

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the US and China’s tug-of-war in the Middle East since the US’ withdrawal from Afghanistan has been “nothing short of a rollercoaster ride” ultimately leading to the US’ attack on Iran.