The relentless question after reading the agreement: Ultimately, why did the war happen?

A recent memorandum of understanding between US President Donald Trump and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian has brought the fundamental question of the war's purpose to the forefront. The agreement reflects the political, military, and economic consequences of the decision to attack Iran on February 28. The human cost has been dire, with thousands of deaths, predominantly civilians in Iran and Lebanon. Strategically, analysts suggest the US and Israel suffered a clear defeat, as the Tehran regime not only survived but emerged strengthened despite a joint operation aimed at its elimination. Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supplies pass, acted as an economic stranglehold on the West. This move compelled Trump into a series of concessions that reportedly angered Americans and the Israeli government. In exchange for opening the Strait, the US committed to lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports, suspending sanctions to allow Iran billions from oil exports, and unfreezing its foreign assets. Former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sarcastically noted that the only "achievement" of the ceasefire was reopening the Strait, which was already open before the war began, and now Iran would be paid to reopen it. The BBC highlighted that Trump faces his biggest foreign policy blunder, while the deal could signal the end of Benjamin Netanyahu's political career, with Israeli elections in October and voters critical of security failures on October 7, 2023. The US and Israel based their strategy on flawed assumptions, believing the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would cause the regime's collapse. However, the Islamic Republic's institutions, built over half a century on deep ideology, religious faith, and the legacy of the Iran-Iraq war, were designed to withstand such pressures. The memorandum is not a final agreement but the start of a difficult 60-day negotiation over Iran's nuclear program. Deep suspicion remains, with hardliners on both sides poised to sabotage the process. Nevertheless, this agreement is preferable to a war that cost thousands of lives and threatened global economic recession.

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the only “achievement” of the ceasefire is the opening of the Strait, which was already open before the war began. And now we will pay Iran to reopen it.