The Strait of Hormuz must stay open

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil transport, must remain open to ensure international stability, according to an analysis in Vanguard (NG). Approximately 21% of the world's daily petroleum consumption, around 21 million barrels, transits this narrow waterway between Iran and Oman.

History demonstrates that any disruption to the strait's flow, even threats, precipitates significant global economic consequences. In 2019, Iran's threat to block the strait caused Brent crude prices to surge 10% within days. Similarly, a partial slowdown in 2022 led to a 7% rise in global oil prices and a 15% increase in freight costs.

The economic fallout from such bottlenecks includes soaring oil prices, accelerated inflation, costly rerouting of shipping corridors, and input shortages for energy-dependent sectors like manufacturing and agriculture. Conversely, the resumption of traffic brings swift relief, as seen in 2019 when oil prices stabilized within 48 hours of traffic resuming.

Given the strait's narrow geography, making it vulnerable to blockade or sabotage, the article proposes redesigning it as a special international waterway under UN and International Maritime Organization (IMO) oversight. This framework, governed by universal access rules, would prohibit closure for political or military purposes and be monitored by a multinational naval patrol.

Additionally, the piece suggests reducing global dependency on Middle Eastern oil by diversifying supply routes, expanding renewable energy, and promoting electric mobility. It also calls for Middle Eastern nations to prioritize regional stability, economic cooperation, and diplomatic engagement over confrontation, learning from the devastation caused by extreme ideologies.