"There are plans to fight tonight" and "it would be absolutely fatal for Russia" – have the risks of attack increased? | Delfi Latvia

Russia has recently not only threatened legal action against Baltic states but also issued direct threats, alleging that drones targeting Russia are launched from their territory. This has raised questions about the actual risk of a direct attack on the region, or if it is merely part of Russia's information warfare tactics.

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the threshold that is necessary for them to actually act is very high.

Armands Astukevičs, a senior researcher at the Centre for East European Policy Studies, stated on the "Spried ar Delfi" program that Russia is vocal in the information space, but the threshold for them to take real action is very high. He suggested that while Russia might be loud, its actions are less likely.

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risks and probabilities always need to be assessed, but they are two different things.

Brigadier General Ilmārs Atis Lejiņš, deputy commander of NATO's multinational division "North," emphasized the need to always assess risks and probabilities, noting they are distinct. He explained that Russia's capability to attack does not necessarily mean it will. The focus remains on distinguishing between potential capability and actual intent, with experts suggesting a high threshold for Russian military engagement in the Baltics.

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the fact that Russia 'can' attack does not necessarily mean that it will.