Tired of War? You Won't Rest Soon

While Ukraine openly discusses post-war reconstruction, the end of the ongoing conflict remains distant. A comprehensive analysis by the international think tank Globsec, involving 71 security experts, has examined seven potential scenarios for the war's development. The findings indicate that a prolonged conflict is the most probable outcome.

The experts attribute the highest probability to a scenario of protracted attrition. In this phase, neither side achieves a rapid strategic victory. Instead, both Ukraine and Russia become increasingly enmeshed in military, economic, social, and political mobilization to sustain the war effort. This deepens their involvement and complicates any immediate resolution.

Globsec's 68-page report assigns a 38% probability to this war of attrition scenario for the current and upcoming year. This outcome is characterized by escalating internal tensions within the involved nations and the need for external compensations or support. The analysis suggests that the conflict is likely to settle into a grinding struggle, demanding sustained commitment and resources from all parties involved.