Tomas Ramberg: However You Turn, the Social Democrats Are in Trouble

With only days left before Sweden's election, Tomas Ramberg argues that the Social Democrats have turned a likely opposition victory into a much more uncertain prospect. If the opposition loses, he writes, the main reason will be the party's collapse, while the other opposition parties appear headed for strong results.

Polls should not be treated as absolute truth, Ramberg cautions. They may be too slow to capture the current electoral wind, which he says appears to favor the Liberals and hurt the Social Democrats. Although every survey gives the opposition an advantage over the Tidö parties, the gap varies sharply, amounting to hundreds of thousands of voters depending on the polling institute.

The DN/Ipsos tables show the red-green parties with about half a million more voters than the right-wing parties, a lead Ramberg describes as difficult to overcome by reasonable standards. But he says the more important struggle is taking place within each bloc.

The Left, Centre and Green parties, recently described as small parties, are each polling at around 8%. Together, they are almost as large as the Social Democrats and could gain substantial influence over both government formation and policy after an opposition victory. The close race between the Centre and Left parties could determine whether Nooshi Dadgostar or Thand Ringqvist faces greater pressure to explain the new government's choices to voters.

Ramberg says Magdalena Andersson has had a poor final campaign. Her message that the choice was between her as prime minister and a government with 12 Sweden Democrats ministers has not united voters behind her. Her openness to the Centre's centrist project with the Christian Democrats may instead have helped the Centre take voters from the Social Democrats. He compares the party's decline with its loss of momentum before the 2010 election and asks what lesson its leadership will draw this time.