Tropical System May Enter Bashi Channel This Weekend, Bringing Rain to Two Regions

Taiwan is bracing for a tropical system that is expected to move north and potentially traverse the Bashi Channel by Friday night or Saturday. Weather expert Wu Der-rong forecasts that the system will head towards Hong Kong, Macau, and Guangdong.

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The latest (21:20:00) ECMWF ensemble simulation shows a tropical disturbance developing east of the Philippines. The ensemble mean path is slightly shifted north, roughly passing through the Bashi Channel late Friday (24th) and Saturday (25th), heading towards Hong Kong, Macau, and Guangdong.

Until Friday, the weather across Taiwan will be hot and sunny, with a risk of localized afternoon thunderstorms, particularly in mountainous areas. This is due to weakening southwest winds and reduced moisture from the south, allowing the Pacific high-pressure system to strengthen slightly.

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Due to the uncertainty in the simulated path, close observation is necessary.

However, conditions are set to change starting Friday evening. The eastern parts of the island will see an increased chance of rain. By Saturday and Sunday, the outer bands of the tropical system are expected to bring significant rainfall to eastern and southern Taiwan. Northern Taiwan is predicted to experience high temperatures during the day.

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From today to Friday, the low-level southwest wind will weaken and southern moisture will decrease. The Pacific high pressure will slightly strengthen, and the weather will gradually become stable. It will be sunny with hot daytime temperatures, so be mindful of sun protection and heatstroke prevention. There is still a chance of localized afternoon thunderstorms, mainly occurring in mountainous areas.

Looking ahead to early next week, from Monday to Wednesday, a southerly wind flow and residual moisture from the tropical system may cause localized showers in southern Taiwan. Afternoon thunderstorms are also possible across the island. The weather is expected to remain hot before any rainfall occurs.

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Starting Friday night, the probability of rain in the east will increase. On Saturday and Sunday, the outer clouds of the 'tropical system' will affect the area, gradually expanding the rain coverage. Eastern and southern parts will have significant rainfall; northern Taiwan will have high daytime temperatures.