Trump-backed Senate candidate trails in Texas as MAGA millions remain on the sidelines

A Senate race in Texas, long considered a Republican stronghold, has become unexpectedly close. Donald Trump’s preferred candidate, Ken Paxton, trails Democrat James Talarico by three points in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll.

The poll, released Aug. 24, gave Talarico 42% support and Paxton 39%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown had 3%, while 14% of voters remained undecided. With a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 points, the poll did not establish a decisive lead.

Other surveys have shown the same contest moving within a narrow range. An Emerson College poll in August put Paxton ahead 47% to 46%, while an earlier Bush School/Recon MR survey gave Talarico a four-point advantage. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.

Campaign spending has widened the contrast between the two sides. CNN reported that Talarico and Democratic groups had spent about $31.5 million on advertising since June, compared with roughly $4.7 million by Republicans. Talarico has therefore appeared frequently on Texas television and digital platforms while Paxton has awaited major outside support.

MAGA Inc., one of Trump’s main political fundraising groups, reported $403.45 million in cash on hand to the Federal Election Commission as of July 31. Yet CNN said the group had not spent any of that money in the Texas Senate race by Aug. 30. Republican Senate leaders had reportedly urged Trump not to back Paxton before he won the party’s nomination.