Trump eyes Keystone XL revival amid Canada trade talks

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a potential revival of the Keystone XL pipeline expansion, linking the project to ongoing trade negotiations with Canada. Trump announced on his social media platform, Truth Social, that he had paused significant tariffs on Canadian goods for three days to allow for deal finalization. He also suggested the "great Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave!"

“

I have paused the 50 per cent Tariffs against Canada, that were scheduled to kick in tomorrow [Wednesday] morning for a three day period, based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL! The great Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

This move follows an April executive order by Trump that granted a cross-border permit for parts of the pipeline. The Keystone XL project has a history of fluctuating support tied to U.S. presidential administrations. While some experts believe the expansion remains economically viable, they also point to considerable challenges. Derek Holt, vice president and economist at Scotiabank, noted that Trump's statement was vague and that the industry remains wary due to the "wild unpredictability of successive U.S. administrations."

“

Trump’s post merely says the two countries have a deal while intimating that the Keystone XL pipeline is back on. We’ll see about that, given a guarded industry toward the pipeline that has moved on given the wild unpredictability of successive U.S. administrations, the long project timelines and the varied competing interests.

Concerns linger over long project timelines and competing interests. Richard Masson, former CEO of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, described Trump's announcement as "very much political" and questioned its substance, suggesting it might be an attempt to claim credit for existing infrastructure. Masson also pointed out that Canada's commitment to building a million-barrel-a-day West Coast pipeline could divert production away from the U.S.

“

Whatever Keystone XL might be coming out of the ground from President Trump may be nothing more than what’s already in place. It’s really hard to understand what he’s doing other than trying to take credit for something. I think it’s very much political, but the other thing is Canada put on the table the idea that we’re going to build a million barrel a day West Coast pipeline, and that would divert a lot of production away from the U.S.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated that Canada and the U.S. were "moving towards an agreement" that would secure "the Canadian advantage," shortly after Trump claimed a "very fair" trade deal. However, the Canadian section of the pipeline is largely complete, with the U.S. connection still pending. Businesses and governments have largely shifted their focus to other pipeline initiatives, such as Trans Mountain, which is being fast-tracked to reach international markets.

“

We are now moving towards an agreement that reinforces that Canadian advantage, including by securing the best terms in each of Canada’s most important strategic sectors and providi