Trump immigration operation cost Chicago $1.26 billion in lost activity, study says

The economic impact of a controversial immigration operation extended far beyond the neighborhoods where federal raids took place, according to a University of Illinois Chicago study. Latino residents reduced everyday trips and spending, contributing to an estimated $1.26 billion in lost commercial activity across Cook County over the period examined.

The Midway Blitz, launched by President Donald Trump’s administration on Sept. 8, 2025, lasted several weeks. The study by UIC’s Great Cities Institute said its economic effects continued after the operation itself ended. Lost local tax revenue added an estimated $107 million to the cost.

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The impact was significant and sustained, and it was felt beyond the commercial districts and iconic restaurants of traditionally Mexican neighborhoods in Chicago, such as Pilsen and La Villita.

The decline reached beyond Chicago’s traditionally Mexican neighborhoods, including Pilsen and La Villita, the study said. Cook County, which includes Chicago and other major Illinois cities, recorded $1.26 billion in lost activity at stores and restaurants. In the county’s suburbs, the fall in retail trade was approximately twice as steep as in Chicago.

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Latinos are workers, consumers, homeowners, business owners and taxpayers.

Residents of Latino neighborhoods limited routine trips for food, medicine, gasoline and banking because they feared detention or harassment during federal raids. Trips fell 7.7% during the first 19 weeks after the operation began. They later declined by 20% after Trump signed additional executive orders aimed at sanctuary jurisdictions such as Chicago and Cook County.

“The impact was significant and sustained, and it was felt beyond the commercial districts and iconic restaurants of traditionally Mexican neighborhoods in Chicago, such as Pilsen and La Villita,” the study said. Research associate José Miguel Acosta Córdova said Latinos are workers, consumers, homeowners, business owners and taxpayers, and that their economic activity helps the regional economy function. He described the measured loss as only part of a much larger economic and human cost.

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Our work and our economic activity are part of what makes Chicago’s regional economy function. So when those normal patterns of movement and economic activity are disrupted, the effects do not remain confined to one neighborhood or population.