Trump, Netanyahu's gamble to reshape Middle East risks prolonged crisis

Former President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu embarked on a strategy they believed would reshape the Middle East by confronting Iran. However, their actions have instead led to a heightened risk of a prolonged "permacrisis," characterized by intermittent conflict. The Iranian regime has demonstrated a greater capacity for resilience than Trump and Netanyahu assumed, proving to be a formidable adversary.

Iran's rulers remain determined to survive and emerge from the current conflict with enhanced deterrence, including asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz. The recent downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter serves as a stark reminder of Iran's ability to inflict damage and its unwavering resolve. While the U.S. president and his generals will likely calibrate a response to avoid appearing weak, they also aim to preserve the stalled diplomatic process.

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To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

The war's unpopularity in America complicates Trump's objective of finding an exit strategy that can be framed as a victory. Both leaders are confronting the age-old lesson that initiating war is far simpler than achieving a clear and decisive end. Their initial pronouncements, made on February 29, suggested an assumption of imminent change in Iran, with Trump even promising freedom to the Iranian people. However, the reality on the ground indicates a far more complex and protracted struggle than initially envisioned.

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This coalition of forces allows us to