Trump's Deal in Sight: Is Iran the Secret Winner?

A significant framework agreement between the United States and Iran is reportedly on the verge of being signed in Geneva this Friday, potentially marking a major diplomatic development. President Donald Trump has repeatedly announced imminent deals with Iran over the past year, emphasizing Iran's desire for an agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, previous attempts at an agreement have faltered due to provocations from Iran or its ally Hezbollah against Israel, or Israeli military actions in Lebanon. The current reported deal hinges on the successful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which would require clearing it of naval mines. Additionally, it may necessitate Israel's restraint from further military actions in Lebanon.

According to Middle East editor Anne Allmeling, speaking on the "NZZ Akzent" podcast, the specifics of the agreement remain uncertain. Allmeling suggests that Iran is likely to claim victory regardless of the deal's terms, primarily because its regime's survival is a key outcome. The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, adds significant weight to the potential implications of this agreement.