Trump's Iran War Ends Partially, Peace Deal Hinges on De-escalation

A hypothetical conflict with Iran, reportedly initiated by former President Donald Trump, has concluded with a peace agreement set to be signed in Geneva. The deal aims to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal transport of goods, though the global economy is expected to take time to recover.

During the conflict, Trump's popularity reportedly declined as fuel prices surged. The article suggests he ignored intelligence warnings about Iran's potential to close the Strait of Hormuz, believing he knew best, only to find himself in a difficult situation. The agreement, however, is fragile. Its success depends on preventing renewed hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. Trump's goal of cutting off Iran's support to its allies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza has not been fully achieved, as groups like Hezbollah and the Houthi movement remain active, and Hamas persists as a power in Gaza.

While Iran's military capabilities have been significantly degraded through targeted strikes, reducing its missile stockpiles and naval forces, the country is described as "weakened, but not knocked out." It retains the ability to defend itself and launch attacks on regional targets and U.S. bases. The article criticizes Trump for underestimating the severe economic consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a warning reportedly issued by his own intelligence agencies and military leaders.

Furthermore, the article posits that the Iranian regime remains intact despite the elimination of some leadership figures. The peace deal requires Iran to ensure Hezbollah ceases rocket fire into northern Israel, while Trump must use his influence over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to respect the agreement. The author suggests Trump has "left the Iranians in the lurch" by not fully achieving his objectives, particularly regarding the regime's survival and its support networks.