Trump's Popularity Hits New Low, Democrats Lead in Polls: Is a Major Congressional Upset Brewing?

With three months remaining until the November 3 midterm elections, the United States faces a pivotal vote that could significantly alter the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term and decide the balance of power in Congress. These elections, known as "midterms," occur halfway through a presidential term and will see all 435 House representatives, 35 of 100 senators, and 36 governors elected.

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Trump's net popularity has fallen to a new second-term low and stands at minus 20 percent, meaning 38 percent of citizens approve of his work, and 58 percent do not.

The outcome will determine whether Trump spends his remaining two years with a compliant Congress or faces opposition from both chambers, controlled by the Democratic Party. Such a scenario would empower Democrats to launch investigations, block legislation, and potentially initiate impeachment proceedings, depending on the scale of their victory. Republicans currently hold a slim five-seat majority in the House and a 53-47 advantage in the Senate.

These elections represent the first major test of Trump's popularity since his return to the White House. They serve as a referendum on his economic policies, characterized by high tariffs and rising living costs, and on Congress's ability to oversee the executive branch. If Democrats gain control of at least one chamber, they will have the authority to hold hearings, issue subpoenas, and investigate the administration, including controversies like the Jeffrey Epstein case, which has even divided some Republicans.

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If Democrats take at least one house of Congress, they will gain powers for hearings, subpoenas, and investigations of the administration, including the controversy surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein file which has shaken even part of the Republican base.

Trump's political standing appears weakened as the campaign enters its final stretch. According to an average of Silver Bulletin polls, his net popularity has dropped to a new second-term low of minus 20 percent, with only 38 percent of citizens approving his job performance and 58 percent disapproving. This figure is lower than at any point during his first term, including the period after the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. Other polls show similar numbers, with approval ratings around 37-38 percent and disapproval at 57-59 percent, particularly among younger voters and independents.

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The rise in living costs is causing the greatest concern among voters.

Analysts and polls attribute Trump's declining popularity to a significant surge in fuel prices and inflation. Furthermore, expired healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and cuts to Medicaid, enacted as part of Trump's tax and budget legislation, have become central themes in the Democratic campaign. Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic minority leader, has pledged that his party will reverse these cuts if they secure a majority. Beyond the economy, the Epstein case has also been a prominent issue in the campaign.

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The party will reverse these cuts if it wins a majority.