Trump team fears Iran war escalation ahead of November midterms

The Trump administration is trying to keep its war with Iran from becoming a larger conflict before November’s midterm elections, according to four people familiar with internal discussions cited by Reuters. The political calculation is direct: Republicans are defending narrow majorities in the Senate and House, and officials want to prevent the war from dominating the campaign.

That strategy is already under strain. The United States and Iran exchanged attacks overnight, and White House officials are weighing an expansion of military operations after the Nov. 3 vote. A return to full-scale conflict is not considered certain, however. The U.S. military says its recent strikes retaliated for attacks on American forces and maritime traffic in the region.

For now, the administration is leaning toward more economic pressure on Iran in an effort to secure concessions in future negotiations. Months of military operations have not produced the expected results. “We are keeping pressure on Iran, but November is the priority,” a White House official said.

A relatively limited war until the election would also give the U.S. military time to rebuild depleted ammunition stocks, the people familiar with the discussions said. But the exchanges have grown more frequent in recent days, even though the overall intensity remains below levels seen in the spring and summer.

Analysts cited in the report expect Iran’s leaders to continue targeting U.S. and allied interests in the Gulf, including military bases, ships and energy infrastructure. They say Washington could face pressure to respond, creating a path toward an expanding conflict and potentially a broader air war. In one recent escalation, the United States struck rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, followed by Iranian missile attacks toward Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The United States later hit additional Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, in the most serious flare-up since July, with military and civilian casualties reported in Iran. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in late August found that 31% of Americans approved of the war and 63% disapproved, while voters were especially unhappy about high fuel prices.

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We are keeping pressure on Iran, but November is the priority