Turkey risks Iran confrontation by joining Red Sea security coalition, warns admiral

Global trade and energy security face a critical juncture as simultaneous blockades impact two vital maritime chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Following disruptions originating from Iran's actions impacting the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen has extended the threat by targeting vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb-Red Sea corridor. This dual pressure affects not only oil supplies but also freight costs, liquefied natural gas markets, inflation forecasts, and the crucial Asia-Europe trade route.

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It's not an agreement, it's a joint statement. Very recently, Yemen, the Houthis, declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Saudi Arabia is making various efforts to prevent this blockade. These signatures essentially carry the meaning of political support for the establishment of a multinational maritime defense coalition. This is a political declaration of intent.

The security crisis in the Red Sea has intensified due to missile and drone attacks by the Houthis on commercial and military ships. While the Houthis initially claimed their actions were a response to Israel's operations in Gaza, their targeting has expanded to include vessels linked to various nations and companies. In response, Saudi Arabia has initiated efforts to counter the Houthi blockade affecting its Red Sea oil exports. The Saudi Ministry of Defense announced a joint statement of support from 14 countries, including Turkey, for the establishment of a multinational maritime defense coalition.

Retired Admiral Türker Ertürk described the joint statement as a "political declaration of intent" rather than a defense agreement. He explained that Saudi Arabia aims to secure navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden. Ertürk suggested Turkey's participation stems from its interest in maritime trade security, noting that rising oil prices due to chokepoint issues negatively impact Turkey. He also pointed to Turkey's recent efforts to mend relations with Saudi Arabia and the influence of the United States, which supports the coalition's formation.

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Why is Turkey supporting this initiative? For the security of maritime trade. Oil prices have started to rise with both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Turkey will suffer from this. Saudi Arabia is taking the lead in this matter. Turkey has been making efforts to improve its relations with Saudi Arabia in recent years. Clearly, it has entered this matter for that reason. But the most decisive element in this matter is the US. The US also wants this to happen. It wants to get this job done by someone.

However, Ertürk cautioned against direct military involvement. He warned that if a coalition requests Turkish warships, Turkey could find itself in a confrontation with Iran and its allies, given the Houthis' alignment with the "resistance axis." This potential geopolitical entanglement highlights the delicate balance Turkey must maintain in regional security matters.

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Because the Houthis are on the resistance axis, Turkey could come face to face with Iran. They might ask for warships from Turkey for the coalition force. If Turkey enters there, there is a risk of confronting Yemen and Iran, which are on the resistance axis.