Turkey unveils 2027-2029 targets for growth, inflation and public finances

Turkey has set a 2029 growth target of 5% and aims to bring inflation into single digits under a new three-year economic program presented by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz.

The 2027-2029 Medium-Term Program, prepared jointly by the Treasury and Finance Ministry and the Presidency’s Strategy and Budget Directorate, updates forecasts for growth, inflation, employment, the current-account deficit and the budget balance.

The government lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 3.3%, citing slower global trade and geopolitical risks. It expects growth to reach 4.2% in 2027, 4.6% in 2028 and 5% in 2029. Total national income is projected to exceed $1.8 trillion by the end of 2026, with per-capita income surpassing $20,000.

Inflation, which stood at 31.5% in August 2026 after reaching 75.5% in May 2024, is expected to end 2026 at 28.4%. The program sets annual targets of 21% in 2027, 13.5% in 2028 and 9% in 2029. It also says war conditions have added about seven percentage points to inflation, citing central bank data.

Higher global energy and commodity prices led officials to raise the 2026 energy import forecast to $71 billion and the foreign trade deficit forecast to $105 billion. Tourism revenue was cut to $65 billion. Exports had reached an annualized $280 billion by August, while medium- and high-technology products accounted for 44.1% of exports.

The current-account deficit is projected at 2.3% of national income in 2026, declining to 1.6% by 2029. The program plans 2.1 million additional jobs and targets unemployment of 8.1% in 2026 and 7.6% in 2029. The 2026 budget deficit is expected at 3.1% of national income, while earthquake-related spending since 2023 is calculated at 5.4 trillion lira, or $104 billion, at 2026 prices.