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🇧🇷 Brazil /Elections & Politics

Two Brazils in the elections

From Folha de S.Paulo · () Portuguese

Translated from Portuguese, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • Brazil's upcoming presidential election is perceived as a stark division between center-left and right-wing supporters, dominated by President Lula and an heir of Jair Bolsonaro.
  • However, a political scientist argues that this polarization is largely confined to elites and educated circles, with the majority of ordinary Brazilians remaining disengaged and undecided.
  • The institutional design of the electoral system and strategic decisions by political leaders are identified as key factors driving this perceived polarization, rather than deep ideological divides among the general populace.

In Brazil, the upcoming presidential election is often portrayed as a dramatic showdown between two opposing forces: the center-left, embodied by President Lula, and the right-wing, represented by an heir of Jair Bolsonaro. This narrative, amplified by media, academics, and political elites, suggests a nation deeply split. Journalists, intellectuals, business leaders, and activists are intensely following the polls, seemingly believing Brazil is irrevocably divided.

the so-called polarization, although not ideological or programmatic, mobilizes intense affects. But it does not divide the electorate.

— Jairo NicolauJairo Nicolau, a political scientist at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, argues that polarization is limited to elites and does not penetrate the majority of the population.

However, this intense focus on polarization, particularly among the informed and educated segments of society, doesn't reflect the reality for the vast majority of ordinary Brazilians. For many, the election feels distant, overshadowed by the pressing concerns of daily life. Political scientist Jairo Nicolau points out that while the polarization mobilizes strong emotions, it doesn't truly divide the electorate. A significant portion of the population remains undecided, indicating a lack of deep-seated commitment to either side.

Hardly a country polarized from top to bottom would have such a significant contingent of undecided voters.

— Jairo NicolauNicolau suggests that the high number of undecided voters contradicts the notion of a deeply polarized nation.

The perceived division is, in large part, a consequence of Brazil's institutional framework and the strategic choices made by political leaders. The two-round majority system necessitates a final contest between two candidates, compelling them to emphasize their differences. Furthermore, decisions made by both left and right-wing leaders have consolidated candidacies prematurely. President Lula and the PT party worked to prevent rivals from emerging on the center-left, while traditional right-wing forces have largely ceded ground to the Bolsonarista movement. The PSD party's decision to back candidates indistinguishable from Flávio Bolsonaro, sidelining centrist options, has further entrenched the far-right's influence. This manufactured division, driven by elite maneuvering and institutional design, masks a more apathetic and less ideologically committed broader electorate.

The choice of a president in majority elections with two rounds necessarily leads to the final dispute between two candidates, who have to emphasize the differences that separate them, whether programmatic, character, or leadership style.

— Jairo NicolauNicolau explains how the electoral system itself encourages the highlighting of differences between candidates.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Folha de S.Paulo in Portuguese. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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