Two critical global passages under threat: Hormuz closed, is Bab al-Mandab next?

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued a stark warning, threatening to close vital energy and trade routes in the region if the United States proceeds with naval blockades on Iranian ports. The corps stated, "Regional energy exports will either be shared by everyone or not used by anyone," indicating a willingness to escalate tensions and disrupt global commerce.

Analysts interpret this threat as a signal that Iran may leverage its allies, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This narrow waterway, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is crucial for Saudi Arabia's oil exports and overall global maritime trade. A Houthi official suggested that closing the strait could drive oil prices as high as $200 per barrel, highlighting the potential economic fallout.

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Regional energy exports will either be shared by everyone or not used by anyone.

The situation has intensified following a breakdown in a four-year ceasefire between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia, triggered by Houthi missile attacks after accusing Saudi Arabia of bombing a Houthi-controlled airport. Since October 2023, the Houthis have also targeted commercial vessels in the Red Sea, claiming to strike ships linked to Israel in solidarity with Palestinians.

In response, the U.S. military has initiated operations targeting Iranian military capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has declared will remain closed until U.S. "malice" ceases. The U.S. Central Command reported striking dozens of military targets along Iran's coast and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in turn, claims to have targeted U.S. command and control centers and facilities in Bahrain, as well as a U.S. logistics facility in Kuwait and aircraft hangars at a U.S. base in Jordan.

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If Saudi Arabia continues its attacks on Yemen, we are ready to close the strait.