Two weeks into Hormuz blockade, doubts linger over U.S. claims of success

The United States' strategy of blockading Iranian oil shipments, now in its second week, has drawn scrutiny regarding its actual effectiveness. While the U.S. Central Command announced continued efforts to intercept Iranian-related vessels in the Arabian Sea, turning them back, American officials have boasted about intercepting 37 ships since the blockade began on the 13th. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confidently predicted that Iran's oil storage facilities, particularly at the Kharg Island terminal, would be full within days, forcing a halt to its oil production. However, this optimistic assessment is met with skepticism from industry experts. Maritime analysis firms like Vortexa and Kpler project that Iran's land-based storage capacity, estimated at 120 million barrels and currently over half full, might reach its limit in two to three weeks. Yet, CNN, citing petroleum experts, suggests that Iran has several more months before it needs to seriously consider production cuts. This is largely due to Iran's ability to utilize decommissioned oil tankers as floating storage, with a nearly 30-year-old supertanker reportedly seen moving towards the Kharg Island terminal. Furthermore, data from Lloyd's List and Vortexa indicates that approximately 34 Iranian-linked tankers have still managed to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the blockade began, exporting at least 10.7 million barrels worth an estimated $910 million. This suggests that technical limitations prevent the U.S. from completely blocking all Iranian vessels, and some ships are finding alternative routes through Pakistani and Indian waters to circumvent the sanctions. The effectiveness of the U.S. blockade, therefore, remains uncertain, with significant impacts potentially months away.

“

Within days, the storage facilities at Kharg Island will be full, and vulnerable Iranian oil wells will have no choice but to shut down.