Typhoon Mikala May Trigger Maritime Warning; Weather Agency Eyes Tuesday Turn

Typhoon Mikala formed early Tuesday, moving west at 18 kilometers per hour. The Central Weather Administration forecasts that Mikala will turn north on Tuesday, with the possibility of issuing a maritime typhoon warning depending on the angle of its turn.

Forecaster Cheng Chieh-jen stated that the key to Mikala's impact on Taiwan lies in its turn on Tuesday. The typhoon is expected to move northward on Tuesday or Wednesday, but its proximity to Taiwan remains highly uncertain. The strength of the Pacific high-pressure system will influence its northward turn; a stronger system could bring it closer to Taiwan, while a weaker one would keep it further away.

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The key to its subsequent turn north is on Tuesday. It will start moving north on Tuesday or Wednesday, and whether it will be far or near Taiwan is still very uncertain.

Cheng explained that current forecasts suggest Mikala will remain distant, likely avoiding a maritime warning. However, if its northward turn brings it closer to Taiwan, a warning could be issued. He emphasized the significant uncertainty in the forecast, requiring daily observation.

Mikala is expected to develop into a moderate typhoon within the next three to four days due to favorable environmental conditions. However, its intensity is predicted to decrease once it begins moving north, influenced by unfavorable atmospheric conditions. This weakening trend will affect the decision on issuing a maritime warning, with size, distance, and intensity being key factors. Daily monitoring is essential.

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According to the 'current' forecast, Mikala is relatively far away and should not issue a maritime warning. However, if the northward turn angle is closer to Taiwan, we cannot rule out issuing a maritime warning.

Currently, Mikala is located 1,960 kilometers east-southeast of Eluanbi, moving west-northwest at 23 to 27 kph. Its maximum sustained winds are 25 meters per second, equivalent to a Level 10 wind, with a storm radius of 120 kilometers for Level 7 winds.

For the next two days, Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu will mostly experience sunny to cloudy weather with high temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms are possible in mountainous areas in the afternoon. The southeastern regions may experience Föhn wind.

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The forecast uncertainty is too great; we still need to observe until next week.