Typhoon Saudel strengthens, posing increased threat to Taiwan

Typhoon Saudel, the 18th typhoon of the season, has been upgraded to a moderate typhoon and is predicted to intensify into a strong typhoon by tonight, significantly increasing its threat level to Taiwan. Meteorologists are closely monitoring its trajectory, with simulations suggesting a higher probability of westward or even southwestward movement.

According to Wu Der-rong, an associate professor at National Central University's Department of Atmospheric Sciences, the current low-pressure system will slowly move north from today until next Tuesday. This will bring moisture-laden southwesterly winds across Taiwan, primarily affecting the southwestern regions with intermittent strong convective activity. The rest of the island may also experience these developments in the afternoon. Residents are warned of severe weather, including lightning, strong winds, and sudden heavy downpours, as well as the risk of disasters from prolonged rainfall.

“

The threat from Saudel to Taiwan has increased and should not be underestimated.

Wu noted that Saudel strengthened into a moderate typhoon last night and is located northeast of Guam. The forecast indicates a chance of it becoming a strong typhoon tonight. Over the next five days, it is expected to move northwest and then northwest-by-west, reaching the vicinity of the Ryukyu Islands by Thursday. However, starting Tuesday, Saudel is projected to enter an area with lower ocean heat content, potentially weakening it back to a moderate typhoon.

Further analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests a westward track for Saudel around next Thursday and Friday, potentially crossing northern Taiwan before entering Fujian. While some models show an earlier turn to the north, an increasing number of simulations indicate a continued westward or southwestward path. This shift is attributed to a simulated weakening of the high-pressure system north of Saudel, which is steering its course. Experts emphasize that the threat to Taiwan is escalating and requires continued observation.

“

We must pay attention to the severe weather it brings, such as 'lightning strikes, strong winds, and sudden heavy rainfall,' and also be aware of disasters caused by prolonged heavy rainfall.