UAE oil production to reach 5 million barrels per day by 2029, GDP growth to hit 6.2% in 2027-29, S&P says

The UAE’s oil production capacity has risen to about 4.85 million barrels per day from the 3.41 million barrels per day quota set by Opec, after the country left Opec and Opec+.

S&P Global Ratings expects production to increase gradually to 5 million barrels per day by 2029 as Abu Dhabi National Oil Company targets higher output. The agency said this would support average real GDP growth of 6.2% in 2027-2029, compared with an estimated 2.4% in 2026.

S&P expects fiscal and current-account surpluses to average 3.5% and 13% of GDP respectively during 2027-2029. It also affirmed the UAE’s AA/A-1+ rating, citing strong financial buffers. Net assets were estimated at 147% of GDP in 2026, while general government debt was estimated at about 26% of GDP.

The agency expects the consolidated fiscal balance to show an average surplus of 2.3% over the next three years. It said the rating could come under pressure if geopolitical tensions persist and affect key infrastructure, oil exports or investor confidence. A reduction in risks, along with stronger monetary-policy effectiveness and deeper domestic capital markets, could support a higher rating.

S&P expects energy flows to recover gradually but not fully. Operational bottlenecks, damaged infrastructure, shipping insurance constraints and lingering risk aversion could delay a return to pre-war levels. The agency also expects continued shipping volatility because of logistical bottlenecks, including constraints in the Strait of Hormuz, and the possibility of localized clashes.