UK youth confidence in the future has decreased, study finds

A significant decline in optimism about the future is evident among young people in the United Kingdom, according to a study by the UK-based think tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). The traditional promise that hard work leads to greater security and opportunity no longer resonates with many young individuals, as only a quarter believe everyone has a fair chance to succeed in life.

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The fundamental promise offered to young people for many years, that hard work would bring more security and opportunity, has now lost its validity for many young people.

While a general sentiment that the system is not fair exists across all age groups, the belief that hard work and talent are sufficient for advancement has diminished with each new generation. Young adults are the least convinced of this principle. The proportion of young people who are pessimistic about their future has steadily increased year after year since the 2015-2017 period.

Data from the research shows that individuals over 70 are about 20 percentage points more likely than young people to believe in a fair chance for advancement through talent and hard work. Since 2015, the percentage of young people who believe they have a low chance of success has tripled, rising from below 2% in 2015-2017 to 6% in 2023-2025. Expectations regarding working life also reflect this trend, with 7% of young people anticipating a high likelihood of long-term unemployment, a figure that has also tripled since 2015-2017.

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The belief that hard work and talent are sufficient for advancement has decreased with each new generation.

The number of young people aged 16-24 not in education, employment, or training (NEET) has surpassed one million. Furthermore, the proportion of young people who view their chances of success as high has fallen from 55% in 2010-2012 to below 40% today. The IPPR assesses that this decline in expectations affects an entire generation, not just a specific segment.

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The proportion of young people who believe they have a low chance of success has tripled since 2015.

The study also highlights a correlation between pessimism and poor mental health among young people. It is estimated that 4 out of 10 young women and 3 out of 10 young men aged 16-24 experience poor mental health. Only 24% of those with poor mental health believe they have a high chance of success, compared to 48% among young people without mental health issues. The IPPR suggests that the loss of future confidence among young people could have far-reaching consequences beyond the labor market, impacting decisions about family, housing, trust in institutions, civic participation, and investment in the future. Factors contributing to this pessimism include high housing costs, job insecurity, strained public services, and a weakening link between effort and reward. To rebuild confidence, the IPPR recommends making housing more affordable and secure, increasing access to good jobs, prioritizing mental health, and restoring a reliable belief that effort can lead to reward.

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The decline in young people's future confidence could have multifaceted effects, not only limited to the labor market but also influencing family formation, housing decisions, trust in institutions, civic participation, and the desire to invest in the future.