DistantNews
Support us
Ukraine Can Win. Russia Can Win. A Negotiated Ceasefire? Highly Unlikely.
🇳🇴 Norway /Conflict & Security

Ukraine Can Win. Russia Can Win. A Negotiated Ceasefire? Highly Unlikely.

From Aftenposten · () Norwegian

Translated from Norwegian, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • The author argues that Western perceptions of the Ukraine war are confused, often prioritizing a negotiated ceasefire over Ukrainian victory.
  • Russia's military, despite heavy losses, has adapted its tactics and continues to replace equipment, showing no signs of abandoning its war aims.
  • A Ukrainian victory, potentially through Russian state collapse, is presented as a more achievable and necessary outcome than a stalemate or imposed peace.

The ongoing debate in the West regarding the war in Ukraine is characterized by a muddled narrative, often prioritizing a negotiated ceasefire over the possibility of a Ukrainian victory. This perspective, exemplified by German political discourse, suggests a reluctance to fully commit to supporting Ukraine's success, instead focusing on preventing its defeat. Such an approach, influenced by fears of nuclear escalation, has led to a hesitant delivery of military aid, with a distinction drawn between 'defensive' and 'offensive' weapons that often lacks practical justification.

Ukraine must not lose

— Olaf ScholzFormer German Chancellor's stance on the war aims, reflecting a Western tendency to focus on preventing defeat rather than achieving victory.

Contrary to the assumption that Russia would eventually exhaust its resources and seek a ceasefire, Moscow has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability. Despite sustaining significant losses, particularly in armored vehicles, Russia has managed to replenish its forces with equipment from Soviet-era stockpiles and has continued its offensive operations. The shift towards infantry-heavy tactics and drone warfare in 2025 indicates a strategic adaptation rather than a collapse of will or capability. This resilience challenges the Western notion that Russia is on the verge of defeat or willing to negotiate a peace based on current territorial realities.

Ukraine should cede territories in a possible peace agreement.

— Friedrich MerzA proposal by a German politician, symptomatic of Western discussions about achievable outcomes in the war.

From a European policy perspective, the most viable path forward is to actively work towards a Ukrainian victory, potentially facilitated by the internal collapse of the Russian state. This contrasts sharply with the prevailing Western sentiment that a stalemate or a negotiated settlement is the only realistic outcome. The article posits that focusing on enabling Ukraine to win is not only achievable but also strategically imperative, rather than settling for a precarious ceasefire that fails to address the root causes of the conflict or secure Ukraine's sovereignty. The narrative needs to shift from "Ukraine must not lose" to actively pursuing "Ukraine must win."

The implicit assumption that Russia would run out of power and agree to a ceasefire has not materialized.

— Gustav C. GresselAnalyzing Russia's sustained military capacity and unwillingness to seek a ceasefire despite losses.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Aftenposten in Norwegian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

More Stories

From Our Blog