Ukraine fears Belarus offensive as Russia stalls on front

Ukraine perceives the threat of a new offensive from Belarusian territory as greater than at any point since Russian forces withdrew from northern Ukraine in spring 2022. This concern stems from Russia's potential aim to divert Ukrainian forces from the main front, where the invading army is encountering escalating challenges.

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Ukraine has recovered 590 square kilometers of its territory since the beginning of the year, making its position 'stronger than in previous years' and the general trend 'unfavorable' for Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has reclaimed 590 square kilometers of its territory since the beginning of the year. He asserted that this recovery makes Ukraine's position "stronger than in previous years" and that the overall trend is "unfavorable" for Russia. Military analysts concur, observing that Russia's advances have stagnated at their lowest levels in three years. While Russia maintains pressure on Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, seeking to revitalize its offensive in the east and south, Ukraine is intensifying drone attacks both within Russian territory and against front-line logistics.

In this context, Russia might initiate a new operation from the north to regain the initiative and increase pressure on Ukraine, potentially targeting the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions from Belarusian territory. The seriousness of this threat is underscored by Zelenskyy's recent visits to areas near the nearly 1,000-kilometer border with Belarus, encompassing the Volyn, Rivne, and Zhytomyr regions.

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We know that the Russian General Staff is actively calculating and planning offensive operations from the north.

Ukraine is collaborating with international partners to "neutralize and minimize these threats coming from the Belarusian side," according to Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha. He also asserted Ukraine's right to respond with reciprocal actions against Belarus. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, Oleksandr Syrskyi, believes the possibility of such operations "is real," stating that the Russian General Staff is actively calculating and planning offensive operations from the north. Former deputy and drone unit commander Ihor Lutsenko also anticipates Russia moving towards some form of escalation, suggesting they will not remain passive while their oil refineries burn and ships hide in the Black Sea.

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They definitely will not stand idly by watching nothing happen on the front, while their oil refineries burn and ships hide in the Black Sea.