Ukraine, Georgia, or European Scenario? Why the EU is Rushing to Befriend Armenia Now

Delfi Latvia reports on a significant diplomatic pivot: Armenia is increasingly turning towards the European Union, a move underscored by a recent high-profile summit in Yerevan attended by numerous EU leaders. This burgeoning relationship signifies a clear departure from Armenia's traditional reliance on Russia, a partnership that has proven increasingly unreliable.

The catalyst for this shift is multifaceted, rooted in the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia felt abandoned by Russia, its long-standing security guarantor, during the 2020 war and especially during Azerbaijan's decisive offensive in 2023, where Russian peacekeepers remained passive. This perceived betrayal, coupled with Russia's diminished capacity and focus following its invasion of Ukraine, has forced Yerevan to seek new strategic alliances.

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It became clear that Armenia's previous strategy of relying on Russia as a security guarantor was actually not working. No help was received from Russia against Azerbaijan, and as a result, Armenia is forced to gradually seek alternatives.

As Māris Cepurītis from the Centre for East European Policy Studies notes, Russia's failure to provide security assurances has made Armenia's pro-Russian strategy untenable. Similarly, Albīne Hlopņicka from the Latvian Institute of Foreign Affairs points out that Armenia's foreign policy began shifting subtly after the 2018 "Velvet Revolution," but Russia's actions in Ukraine accelerated this reorientation. The EU's engagement, including the signing of a new cooperation agreement, represents Armenia's strategic move to diversify its partnerships and secure its future in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. This is a story of a nation seeking stability and security beyond its traditional, and now faltering, alliances.

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Russia diverted resources to the war, reducing Moscow's presence in the South Caucasus. Although Russia diplomatically condemned Azerbaijan for violating the ceasefire, in reality, it did not take serious steps to support Armenia.