Ukraine pays demographic price for sovereignty as Russia faces strategic defeat

The war in Ukraine has exacted a devastating demographic toll, with the country's population potentially shrinking from 41 million to 29 million, according to Spanish journalist Cristian Segura, who has covered the conflict for El País. While Russia has strategically failed to dismantle Ukrainian statehood, the prolonged conflict has led to a severe demographic crisis for Ukraine.

Segura notes that Russia has lost strategically, failing in its initial objective to destroy Ukraine's statehood. However, Ukraine's victory is incomplete due to the immense human cost and the protracted nature of the fighting. The journalist acknowledges his earlier prediction of a frozen conflict in 2025, influenced by potential US-China negotiations, did not materialize due to global order destabilization and China's stance.

China's role has been significant; in July 2025, it reportedly warned European leaders against allowing Putin's defeat, prioritizing its interests concerning Taiwan over a resolution in Europe. Despite this, Segura is now convinced Russia cannot win on the battlefield. Russian offensives have lost momentum, with troops even retreating in some sectors. The front lines are saturated with drones, paralyzing Russian logistics and making large-scale breakthroughs impossible for either side. Russia faces a critical shortage of recruits, and further conflict could force Putin into a mobilization that destabilizes his regime internally.

Geopolitically, Putin has alienated Europe and made Russia economically dependent on China. For Ukrainians, the concept of Russia as a "brotherly nation" has vanished, replaced by deep-seated hatred for those who destroyed their lives. Nevertheless, Ukraine has defended its sovereignty, built a strong military, developed its defense industry, and paved its way toward the European Union.