Ukraine strikes deep into Russia with drones, but faces ground setbacks

Ukraine has escalated its long-range drone campaign, striking an oil refinery in Omsk, Russia, located over 2,500 kilometers from its border. This attack, part of a broader operation targeting Russia's oil export revenue and fuel supply, also hit refineries in Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions. The Omsk refinery, operated by Gazpromneft, is one of Russia's largest, with a refining capacity exceeding 20 million tons annually.

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Putin is losing money, troops, and momentum.

These strikes, which began on July 1, aim to cripple Russia's war financing by disrupting its oil exports. Some Western observers have viewed these long-range attacks as a strategic advantage for Ukraine. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell welcomed previous strikes on St. Petersburg, stating that Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing money, troops, and momentum.

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Kostiantynivka appears likely to fall before the end of summer. Preparations to encircle Kramatorsk and Sloviansk will likely be made in the fall.

However, Ukraine's successes in striking deep within Russia contrast sharply with its struggles on the ground. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces occupied 30.4 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in the past month. While the pace of Russian advances has slowed significantly compared to last year, Ukraine has not been able to reclaim lost territory. This is partly due to Ukraine's troop numbers, which are about half of Russia's, limiting its ability to transition from defensive positions to offensive operations.

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The balance of power, in terms of troops, equipment, ammunition, and economic resilience, still favors Russia.

The strategic city of Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region is particularly precarious. Russia claimed to have captured the city on August 3, though Ukraine's General Staff maintains its forces are defending positions and continuing to fight. Intense urban warfare is reportedly underway as Russian infiltration has increased. Olivier Kemp, CEO of Strategic Consulting Group, predicts Kostiantynivka could fall before the end of summer, with Russia potentially preparing to encircle Kramatorsk and Sloviansk by autumn. He believes the balance of power, in terms of troops, equipment, ammunition, and economic resilience, still favors Russia. Kemp concluded that Ukraine's long-range strikes, while significant, are not enough to alter the operational situation, as Russia continues to gradually wear down Ukrainian forces.

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Ukraine is carrying out (long-range) strikes, but that alone is not enough to change the operational situation. Russia is continuing to gradually wear down and consume the opponent.