Ukraine War Entering Final Phase, Professor Outlines Three Scenarios

The war in Ukraine is approaching its final stages, with its ultimate political and military contours potentially emerging by the end of 2026, according to Masahiro Matsumura, a professor of international politics and national security.

Matsumura argues that the conflict's resolution will hinge less on battlefield maneuvers and more on the long-term capacity of both sides to sustain troop numbers, finance their states and militaries, and maintain allied support. He identifies three critical factors pushing the war toward a conclusion: Ukraine's dramatic demographic decline, diminishing U.S. aid, and the increasing burden of support falling almost entirely on European nations. Additionally, the limited strategic impact of Ukrainian attacks deep within Russian territory is a significant consideration.

Ukraine, even before the 2022 invasion, faced severe demographic challenges, with its population shrinking significantly since the Soviet Union's collapse. The ongoing war has exacerbated this crisis, causing millions to flee or come under Russian occupation. Matsumura estimates that only about 25 million people now live in Ukrainian-controlled territory. This population decrease directly impacts the nation's ability to wage war, leading to a shrinking pool of military-eligible men and forcing the government to broaden mobilization and restrict the departure of fighting-age men. The reduced workforce also strains the economy, increasing reliance on foreign financial aid.

In contrast, Russia, with a population four to five times larger, has managed to maintain troop replenishment through financial incentives and recruitment drives in its poorer regions. Matsumura's analysis suggests that Europe faces a strategic paradox: unwilling to accept Ukraine's potential defeat but lacking the industrial and financial capacity for indefinite war financing. This situation places a substantial, perhaps unsustainable, burden on European states as U.S. support wavers.