UN expects strongest El Niño on record, with 2027 set to be especially hot

The World Meteorological Organization says the current El Niño could become the strongest since its records began 40 years ago, with effects extending well into 2027.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the phenomenon could “literally break the scales we have been using for four decades.” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said El Niño was growing before the world’s eyes and described the planet as being in “uncharted waters, and these waters are heating up.”

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literally break the scales we have been using for four decades

Forecasts put the phenomenon’s peak at the end of 2026. There is almost a 100 percent chance that it will continue through February, while the risks of floods, droughts and extreme heat are expected to remain elevated into the following year. The WMO also expects above-average temperatures on almost every continent from September to November.

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El Niño is growing before our eyes

El Niño occurs every two to seven years when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer. That shift affects winds, air pressure and rainfall around the world, increasing the risk of extreme weather and worsening droughts linked to human-caused climate change.

Honduras, Panama and El Salvador declared drought alerts in late August. Panama also reduced shipping through the Panama Canal because water levels had fallen. WMO data showed that Pacific surface temperatures were already 2.2 to 2.6 degrees Celsius above the long-term average between late July and mid-August. Subsurface waters were more than eight degrees warmer in some areas. Saulo said droughts and floods were already causing extensive damage and warned that the effects would increase as El Niño strengthens, putting economies, agriculture, health systems and energy supplies at risk.

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uncharted waters, and these waters are heating up