UN forecasts record global heat for 2026-2030, warns of El Niño's impact

The world is bracing for continued extreme heat as the United Nations predicts record or near-record global temperatures between 2026 and 2030. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that there is a 75% probability that the average temperature over these five years will surpass pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

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Global temperatures are expected to remain at record or near-record levels.

This forecast builds on a trend identified by the WMO, which noted that the period from 2015 to 2025 has already been the hottest 11 years on record. A new report, compiled from 13 institutes and led by the UK's Met Office, indicates an 86% likelihood that one of the years between 2026 and 2030 will set a new record for the hottest year, surpassing 2024's mark.

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It is likely that one of the years between 2026 and 2030 will set a new record for the hottest year.

Adding to the warming trend, El Niño is anticipated to return in late 2026, potentially making 2027 the next record-breaking hot year. El Niño, characterized by warmer Pacific Ocean waters, typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months. Its recent occurrences in 2023 and 2024 contributed to those years becoming the hottest on record.

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El Niño is expected to occur in late 2026, increasing the probability that the following year, 2027, will set the next record.

The WMO report, released alongside an exceptional May heatwave in Europe, projects that global surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will remain close to historic highs, exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius annually. While temporary exceedances of 1.5 degrees Celsius are highly likely, the report considers it very unlikely that global temperatures will exceed 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels within this five-year period. The WMO clarifies that the 1.5 and 2-degree thresholds in the Paris Agreement refer to long-term warming, and temporary annual exceedances do not preclude achieving long-term goals.

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Temporary exceedances of these thresholds do not mean that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are impossible to achieve.