UN security council holds second poll to select next secretary-general

The United Nations Security Council is convening for its second straw poll, a crucial step in gauging the support for candidates seeking to succeed Antonio Guterres as Secretary-General. The informal vote aims to provide direction and clarity in a race that features a growing field of contenders.

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While the first straw poll set the scene for the Secretary-General race, the second may give us some direction about where it is headed.

Following the first informal vote last month, Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica emerged as the leading candidate. However, the field remains competitive, with other notable figures such as Argentina's Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, and Chile's Michelle Bachelet also in the running. The council's 15 members, including the five permanent members with veto power, cast secret ballots to evaluate each candidate.

Diplomats anticipate shifts in the vote distribution compared to the initial poll. Key attention will be on whether the early front-runners can consolidate their support or if new contenders might emerge and gain traction. Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, has not ruled out the possibility of new candidates entering the race if a deadlock occurs among the current nominees.

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Diplomats expect fluctuations in the vote distribution compared to the July poll. Most will be watching to see whether the early front-runners consolidate their support or slip in the standings.

For any candidate to progress, they must secure at least nine affirmative votes from the 15 Security Council members. Crucially, they must also avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members: Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States. This dual requirement presents a significant hurdle, especially given the current geopolitical divisions among these major powers. Once a candidate clears these bars, their name is forwarded to the General Assembly for confirmation.

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It is unlikely that any candidate will emerge from (Friday’s) poll with a decisive lead.

The straw poll mechanism, though criticized by some member states for its opacity, has been a fixture since the early 1980s, often used to break deadlocks. The current process allows members to anonymously label candidates as "encourage," "discourage," or "no opinion." This system provides an opportunity for candidates with minimal support to withdraw, though they are not obligated to do so. The process is expected to take several weeks.

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If, for example, I’m speculating now, if there is a deadlock on any of the candidates we are seeing today, if nobody… flies, then I think that we may see other candidates as well.