UN warns possibly strong El Nino could push global temperatures higher

The United Nations weather agency has forecast a moderate or possibly strong El Nino event, warning that it could significantly increase global temperatures and the risk of extreme weather in the coming months. El Nino is characterized by a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically persisting for nine to 12 months.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated that warm ocean waters are fueling El Nino's development. They predict above-average temperatures globally from June to August and anticipate the pattern will likely continue until November. "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event - which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

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We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event - which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.

Saulo noted that the most recent El Nino, from 2023 to 2024, contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. The WMO has observed a shift in the Equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly from late April to mid-May, indicating El Nino conditions are developing. Unusually warm subsurface conditions in the tropical Pacific, exceeding 6°C above average, are creating a heat reservoir driving surface warming.

This weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially causing increased rainfall in areas like southern South America and the southern United States, while leading to drought in Australia and Indonesia. UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged immediate action, stating, "The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world." He called for a transition away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy. While climate change does not increase El Nino's frequency or intensity, it can worsen its impacts, such as extreme heatwaves and heavy rainfall, according to the WMO.

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The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.