Unchecked settlements near Gilgit raise Glof risks, warns Pakistan space agency

Uncontrolled settlements near Gilgit city are escalating the risk of catastrophic floods, according to Pakistan's Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco). The agency warns that unchecked construction along a natural stream fed by glacial lakes could trigger devastating glacial lake outburst floods (Glofs).

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With the monsoon season now under way, the Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) has raised concern over the uncontrolled spread of settlements along a natural glacial lake-fed stream near Gilgit city, warning that lives, property and livestock could be at risk.

Suparco's analysis of satellite images from 2013 and 2023 reveals a dramatic expansion of settlements encroaching upon the stream's natural flood conveyance zone. This encroachment significantly reduces the channel's capacity to handle high-magnitude flows, altering natural drainage patterns and exposing infrastructure to severe flood hazards. The agency stated that in the event of a Glof or extreme rainfall, the obstructed floodplain could lead to sudden overbank flooding and widespread destruction.

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Such land-use changes have altered natural drainage patterns and increased the exposure of residential and commercial infrastructure to flood hazards.

The situation is exacerbated by "human negligence, weak enforcement of land-use regulations and the absence of risk-informed urban planning," Suparco reported. Despite clear hazard indicators visible through satellite imagery, construction continues unabated. Pakistan has experienced 89 flood events in the past 25 years, with impacts worsening due to urban development in active riverbeds and floodplains.

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the confined channel and obstructed floodplain could result in sudden overbank flooding, debris flows and widespread destruction.

Suparco continuously monitors glacial lakes using satellite imagery to support early warning systems for Glof hazards. Recently, one more lake was added to the list of potentially dangerous glacial lakes, bringing the total to 131. These monitoring results are shared with the Ministry of Climate Change's Technical Committee on Glof Monitoring.

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the scale of potential damage had been substantially amplified by human negligence, weak enforcement of land-use regulations and the absence of risk-informed urban planning at the government level.