US and Iran Near Ceasefire Deal, But Key Issues Remain Contentious

The United States and Iran are reportedly on the cusp of signing a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU), with high-ranking US officials expressing an 80-85% probability of a deal within days. This development marks a significant step in de-escalating recent military confrontations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that the MOU has received approval from Iran's leadership, including the Supreme Leader and the Supreme National Security Council, indicating that an agreement has never been closer.

US officials highlighted substantial progress over the past four months, describing the last 24 hours as a "total offensive" to cross the finish line. The proposed MOU aims to achieve several key outcomes: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, the lifting of US counter-sanctions, the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program, and the establishment of a verification system for inspections. A senior US official specifically emphasized that the MOU includes language ensuring the disposal and removal of Iranian nuclear material to a satisfactory level for the US.

However, the path forward is not without its challenges. Iran has yet to publicly confirm specific nuclear disposal commitments, with some reports suggesting only a reaffirmation of not pursuing nuclear weapons. Araghchi indicated that nuclear negotiations with the US would proceed in a "next phase," and Iran would not accept the export of enriched uranium. Disagreements also persist regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of sanctions. While both sides reportedly agreed to reopen the strait immediately upon MOU signing, Iran suggested that service fees might be considered for passage, a stance that contrasts with the US's emphasis on complete openness. Furthermore, Iran is pushing for the early release of its frozen assets, reportedly around $25 billion, while the US insists that economic compensation will be tied to Iran's concrete actions, such as nuclear material disposal and halting uranium enrichment.